Yemen's politics | Economist.com
Yemen's politics
From The Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
A new corruption-busting prime minister is appointed
Ali Mohammed Mujawer, the newly appointed prime minister of Yemen, won a reputation as an effective opponent of corruption in his previous post as electricity minister. His clean-up efforts are reported to have included cutting off the power supply to a regional office of the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) for failing to pay its electricity bills for the past five years. The choice of Mr Mujawer reflects the concern of the Yemeni president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to convince international donors of the government's serious intent to press ahead with economic reforms and to combat waste and corruption. It also entails a division of labour between the roles of economic management, party politics--which will be the preserve of the outgoing prime minister, Abdelqader Ba Jammal--and security, which falls under Mr Saleh's remit.
Last November, following Mr Saleh's re-election, the government received pledges of US$4.7bn in aid over four years at a donor conference in London. One reason for the donors' munificence was the assurances from the government that procedures were being put in place to guarantee that aid would be effectively monitored and that funds would not disappear into the bureaucracy and informal economy, as has happened with previous such initiatives. The lion's share of the aid pledges came in the form of grants from Gulf Arab states, which not only have cash to spare as a result of the long oil boom but also have a vital interest in staving off economic collapse in their poor and populous Arabian neighbour. One of the least developed countries in the world—electricity coverage is only 30%, and 64% of the population do not have access to safe drinking water—Yemen is in dire need of external financial support.
Mr Mujawar, a French-trained economist, is expected to promote a number of younger technocrats to his cabinet. Donors will be watching closely to see what post (if any) is given to Abdel Karim al-Arhabi, who, as planning and international co-operation minister in the previous government, played a critical role in the success of the London conference.
The prime minister will take over stewardship of a five-year plan (2006-10), which aims to achieve average real GDP growth of over 7%, primarily through boosting capital expenditure and trimming current outlays. In order to achieve this, the government must make concerted efforts to eliminate subsidies, reduce the wage bill and contain defence outlays. However, it clearly still has a long way to go. According to the 2007 budget, the amount allotted solely to the oil products subsidy is greater than the total capital projects budget, despite the government's pledge in its five-year plan to cease all subsidies by 2010.
The Ministry of Finance has kept to its pledge not to include the London donor funds in its budgetary accounts. Its promise to keep the aid monies outside its Treasury accounts helped to assuage concerns among foreign donors that their contributions might not be directed into capital projects as intended, but instead be used to postpone much-need fiscal reform, or, more seriously, be lost to corruption. This has, however, caused the government to come in for sustained criticism from the parliamentary opposition, which has accused it of failing to tackle seriously the country's high poverty levels. It will be up to Mr Mujawar to address these concerns.
In announcing the new appointment, Mr Saleh made clear that he wished the outgoing prime minister, Mr Ba Jammal, to focus on his job as secretary-general of the GPC, with parliamentary elections on the horizon in 2008 or 2009. Of more immediate concern for the country's political leaders is the continuing rebellion in the north-western Saada province by radical members of the Zaydi sect, a branch of Shia Islam that is prevalent in this part of the Arabian peninsula. The revolt started in September 2004 when members of a Shia sub-sect led by Hussein Badr al-Din al-Huthi, the Believing Youth, began to sow dissent in protest against the government's co-operation with the US in its "war on terror". After sporadic clashes and a series of short-lived truces, heavy fighting between government forces and the Huthis broke out in January 2007, as Mr Saleh announced his intention of eradicating the group after it had killed several soldiers in a surprise raid on their military base. The anti-Huthi campaign has continued over the past two months, with heavy casualties reported on both sides, as well as among the civilian population.
The government claims that the Huthis have benefited from external support, but has stopped short of making any specific accusations. The combination of Shia militancy and a strong anti-US stance suggests that the Huthis might see Iran as potential ally. The Yemeni foreign minister, Abu Bakr Abdullah al-Qirbi, said, after a recent visit to Tehran, that there was no evidence that the Iranian government was backing the Huthi rebels, but he added that the rebels had received support from "Shia religious circles", according to Al-Waset, a local weekly newspaper.
There have also been reports that Yemeni security forces recently shot down a pilotless reconnaissance drone with Iranian markings in the Hadhramaut area of south Yemen. However, the government has made no statement on the affair.
No comments:
Post a Comment