France's presidential race | Watch your backs | Economist.com

Watch your backs

Apr 10th 2007
From Economist.com

The favourites for France’s presidency face a tough campaign

AFP

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THE centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) and the left Socialist Party are France’s biggest by some way and their presidential candidates are well known. The UMP’s Nicolas Sarkozy has made much of his toughness on law and order, while the Socialists’ Ségolène Royal has promised to expand the welfare state and to encourage more public participation in politics. But as official campaigning gets underway this week, neither front-runner can rest assured of doing well enough in the first round of voting, on Sunday April 22nd, to make it to the run-off two weeks later.

The field is unusually crowded this time, at least at the front. A dozen candidates have qualified for the presidential ballot and the surge of François Bayrou, a centrist, has given the smaller parties added hope of influencing the outcome. Mr Bayrou’s rise has stalled for now, but he remains solidly in third place with some 18% of the support, according to a recent poll by LH2. The same poll gave Mr Sarkozy a lead of sorts, with 28% to Ms Royal’s 24%. Nobody has much margin for error.

Ms Royal, in particular, is on a tightrope. To her left are three Trotskyite candidates, a communist, and a well-known anti-globalisation activist, José Bové. Many socialist voters groaned when Ms Royal dared to state the obvious by saying that profits were necessary for a healthy economy. Nor were they pleased when she suggested that French homes should fly the national flag on Bastille Day. She is also prone to making gaffes on the campaign trail, especially on foreign affairs. One dismayed socialist told Le Monde that she had considered starting a petition to tame Ms Royal: “we’re voting for you, but shut up.” Socialist discipline may save her, however. The left remains traumatised by the 2002 election, in which the lacklustre Socialist candidate was beaten to a place in the second round by the far-right’s Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Mr Sarkozy also has his right eye on Mr Le Pen. Pollsters give Mr Le Pen 15%, but as many potential supporters are embarrassed to say they will vote for him, his real popularity may be higher than the polls suggest. Thuggish though he is, his anti-immigrant message appeals to some voters. Mr Sarkozy has tried to become a more palatable hard-man. He is popular for his hard stance on crime and hooliganism—acutely sensitive topics in France since an outburst of rioting in late 2005. Mr Sarkozy, who was then interior minister, risked accusations of flirting with the far right. Two words he used then—racaille (“scum” or “rabble”, used to describe the rioters), and “Kärcher” (the make of a high-pressure hose he said he would like to use to clean the streets)—have become permanently associated with him.

With the race tightening, sparks have begun to fly on a wide range of issues. Mr Sarkozy told a philosophy magazine recently that paedophilia and suicidal tendencies were probably genetic traits, provoking sharp criticism from Ms Royal and Mr Bayrou. But Mr Sarkozy got a fillip when Mr Le Pen denounced him as “the candidate who came from immigration”—a reminder of Mr Sarkozy’s Hungarian-Jewish origins. The other candidates denounced Mr Le Pen, and voters were reminded of Mr Sarkozy’s self-propelled ascent through France’s static political class.

There are two more wild cards in the election. One is voter registration, which is at a record high, with 2.9m more eligible to vote this year than at the last election in 2002. One explanation is the heightened interest of young French from immigrant backgrounds who plan to oppose Mr Sarkozy, though the lack of an incumbent may also have encouraged new voters to come forward. The second is the unusually high number of undecided voters—42% according to one poll. With France in an anxious mood about its economy, social model and place in the world, the possibility of surprises in the first round remains very much alive.

France's presidential race | Watch your backs | Economist.com